The Novice Tipster

Orfevre won't mind any rain 3:15 Longchamp - Orfevre 2/1 (nap Details in my preview of my reasons 1:50 Uttoxeter - Milord 7/4 2:10 Huntingdon - Azure Fly 4/5 and a little bet on a big outsider at Longchamp 12:45 Ballesteros 25/1 4th in this last year from stall 13 (14 today) which is not great but the more it rains the better this horse is, and it's supposed to be very soft over there. His work partner is Intibaah who won at Ascot very impressively on Friday. He has had a very light season as the ground has been to firm, but he came back at Newbury to finish 5th, and will be fitter for that run

Red - Winner, Blue - Placed , Green - Non Runner Huntingdon 2:10 Azure Fly   2:45 Cap Elorn   3:25 Refer   3:55 Red Riverman   4:25 Mrs Peachey 4:55 Southway Queen   Kelso 2:00 Next Edition 2:35 Estinaad 3:05 Kris Cross 3:45 Bright Abbey   4:15 Presenting Junior 4:45 Sendiym   5:15 Lucky Sun   5:45 Factor Fifty   Uttoxeter 1:50 Milord   2:20 West End 2:55 No No Mac 3:35 Tony Star   4:05 Flicka Williams 4:35 Terfel's Toscar   5:05 Wom   5:35 Farmer Frank   Longchamp 12:45 Ballesteros 1:20 Lesstalk In Paris 1:55 Karakontie 2:30 Tasaday 3:15 Orfevre 4:00 Tabarak   4:40 Moonlight Cloud 5:10 High Jinx 5:40 Konig Bernard  

Orfevre Qatar Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe Preview Last year i did a review of the race and in my top 4, i came up with the 40/1 Solemia. So maybe i can come up with the winner again. Not sure the winner will be that big odds this year though. The rain played a big part last year.   And as the forecast suggests it will rain all day Saturday and there are possibilities of thunder storms. So once again i will be looking for a horse which will enjoy the soft/heavy ground. And although the going is Soft in France, their soft tends to be our Heavy. Just a quick note. I do go on a lot about stall draw. Stall draw is very important here, with 7 and under holding a definite advantage. Anything higher is a negative. Ruled Out Horses   Al Kazeem   20/1 – has been in outstanding form this year, and although is not happy on firm ground, he is unproven on anything softer than good-soft, and his only attempt at soft was on his first run where he was soundly beaten. That doesn’t

Ajman Bridge 5:15 Newmarket - Ajman Bridge 7/4  Ajman Bridge is highly thought off and after a injury ridden spring, was back with a solid win at Pontefract. Put up a hefty 8lb in the handicap. But harsh for a 2L win i think but the horse has bags of potential and will improve again from that run. Will be hard to beat. 1:30 Ascot - Rocky Ground 9/1 1:55 Fontwell - Hannibal The Great 10/11 - £19.09 2:05 Ascot - Hot Streak 9/2 - £55 2:50 Redcar - Dutch Rose 7/1 4:10 Newmarket - Rock Choir 10/1 4:45 Newmarket - Mince 11/4 - £37.50 £60 stake - £111.59 returns = £51.59 profit Stalls and System Analysis 1:30 Ascot 1st Noble Storm 10/1 - 60 2nd Definightly 20/1 - 45 3rd Masamah 7/1 - 40 4th Doc Hay 13/2 - 35 There is not enough stall data to do an analysis, i did widen the search however, and Stall 12 looked to produce quite a few winners at 5f. For me it's not conclusive though. Stall 12 will be occupied by Noble Storm. Noble Storm, Definightly and Masama

Red - Winner , Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Ascot 1:30 Rocky Ground 2:05 Hot Streak 9/2 2:40 Mijhaar   3:15 Soul 3:50 Bertiewhittle 9/1 4:25 Enrol Folkstone 1:55 Hannibal The Great 10/11 2:30 Franklino 3:05 Experimentalist   3:40 Synthe Davis 6/1 4:15 Sandy's Double   4:50 Annie Confidential   5:20 Doing Fine 5:50 Lily Waugh 7/2 Newmarket 1:50 Night Song 2:20 Toofi   2:55 Mabait 5/1 3:35 Battersea   4:10 Rock Choir   4:45 Mince 11/4 5:15 Ajman Bridge Redcar 1:40 Erroneous 11/8 2:15 No Dominion   2:50 Sutch Rose 3:30 Emirates Flyer 4:00 Bling King 5/2 4:35 Dance King   5:05 Our Diane   5:35 Thatcherite 9/4 Wolverhampton 5:30 Light From Mars 6:00 Emerahldz 11/4 6:30 Awattan 7:00

Brackloon High 4:25 Fontwell - Brackloon High 7/2 - NAP Another AP story here. AP has chosen to ride this horse, he has bypassed Dreamsoftheatre owned by his boss JP McManus to ride this one. Dreamsoftheatre has won his last 3 in a row, but has now gone up 22lb in the handicap and Maurice Lineham claims a valuable 5lb, but he has ridden him on the last 3 occasions, and Dreamsoftheatre only just got home in front last time. AP has ridden this horse in the past too. AP has also ridden top weight Red Not Blue last time out when they were 3rd. Ryan hatch takes over to take 7lb off his back BH stats on good is 1, 1, 12*, PU** (*higher grades than today) Theologist looks the biggest danger in the race, but his last race was January 2012. And although his trainer will have him fit, he still might need this to get on track.   2:00 Ascot - Bassara 16/1 3:40 Ascot - Dabaiyan 10/3 3:45 Gowran Park - Twin Plan 6/1   £30 stake - £0 returns = -£30

Red - Winner, Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Ascot 2:00 Bassara 2:30 Modern Tutor   3:05 Blessington 3:40 Dabadiyan 4:15 Perfect Heart   4:50 Brownsea Brink   Fontwell 2:10 Mighty Thor 2:40 Ski Sunday 3:15 West Brit 3:50 Fruity o'Rooney 4:25 Brackloon High 5:00 Rhum 5:30 Dancing Royal Hexham 2:20 Polarbrook   2:55 Spiekeroog 3:30 Up For An Oscar 5/1 4:05 Riskier 2/1 4:40 Moon Trip   5:15 Benefit Of Youth 5:45 Pyjama Game 4/1 Wolverhampton 5:55 Beauty Pageant 11/4 6:25 George Fenton 4/1 6:55 Alpine Mysteries 11/2 7:25 Alnawiyah   7:55 Living The Life 11/10 8:25 Aramadyh 12/1 8:55 Ruwaiyan  

3:45 Newcastle - Rufoof 7/2 (nap) - £45 4:20 Newcastle - Hunter's Belt 7/2 4:50 Newcastle - Broctune Papa Gio 14/1 7:10 Kempton - Diplomatic 12/1 £40 stake - £45 return = £5 profit

Red - Winner , Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Kempton 5:40 Rightcar   6:10 Pool House   6:40 Knight Charm 7:10 Santadelacruze   7:40 Red Galileo 1/5 8:10 Extra Noble 7/4 8:40 Fresa   9:10 Mrs Warren Newcastle   2:10 Raven Ridge 10/11 2:40 Upholland   3:10 Millkwood   3:45 Rufoof   3/1 4:20 Hunter's Belt 4:50 Broctune Papa Gio 5:20 Windforpower 9/1 5:50 Black Douglas   Nottingham   2:00 Fair Flutter 9/4 2:30 Merletta   3:00 Ambitious Icarus   3:35 Chortle   4:10 Musaddas * 4:40 Magistral 5:10 Absent Amy   Salisbury 1:45 Magnus Maximus   2:20 Hands Up 2:50 Piping Rock 5/2 3:20 Well Painted   3:55 Nabucco 7/4 4:30 Figure Of Speech   5:00 Desert Command 5:30 Admirable Duque  

Bold Raider 9:20 Kempton - Rock Up 11/4 (Ladbrokes) NAP 2:30 Chepstow - Bold Raider 3/1 3:05 Chepstow - Bombadero 5/2 4:35 Sedgefield - Bee Cee Pee M 1/1 6:50 Kempton - Starlight Princess 5/1 e/w  £50 stake - £0 returns = -£50 loss 3:05 Chepstow - Bombadero 5/2 Interesting race this, and it all centre's around AP McCoy. His ride Bombedero. Shown nothing really and not much to recommend unless i am missing something, although he is dropping in class by quite a bit. Which will put him in there with a good chance. But the main reason i notice is because, Rebecca Curtis and Jonjo O'Neill have horses running in the race Vimiero and Castle Beach both of whom AP has ridden, but another horse Wayward Glance who AP has ridden quite a bit and won last time out on him. So why is he jumping ship? Especially when he is so close to his 4000 win. To me there must be a very good reason.   5:20 Chepstow - A Tail Of Intrigue 25/1 (ladbrokes) A Tail Of Intrigue?

Red - Winner , Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Ayr 2:10 Witchy Woman 2:40 Missouri Spirit   3:15 Compton Heights 9/1 3:50 Medieval Bishop 4:25 Monsieur Pontaven   5:00 Ad Vitam 5:30 Go Go Green   6:00 High Resolution   Chepstow 2:00 Creepy 10/11 2:30 Bold Raider 3:05 Bombadero 3:40 Full Of Joy   4:15 Chestnut Ben 4:50 Clarion Call 5:20 A Tail Of Intrigue Kempton   5:50 Tullia 6:20 Tides Reach 1/1 6:50 Starlight Princess   7:20 For Posterity   7:50 Aalim   8:20 Anomaly 8:50 Take The Lead 9:20 Rock Up Sedgefield 2:20 Saint Thomas 5/4 2:50 Cloudy Joker 3:25 Takaatuf 4:00 Sendiym 6/4 4:35 Bee Cee Pee M 5:10 Perfect Timing   5:40 Ovilia