The Novice Tipster

14the September by The Novice Tipster » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:27 am Brian Meehan SEFAAT (Bath 2.15 p.m.) Consistent juvenile filly broke her maiden in a three-horse affair at Ffos Las and was unlucky not to follow up at the same track soon after. Remains in good form and has a weight off which she can be dangerous. SPARK PLUG (Bath 3.25 p.m.) Son of Dylan Thomas and the Group 1 winning South African mare Kournikova has been shaping well on the gallops. He is sure to benefit from this initial outing. GREAT HALL (Doncaster 3.50 p.m., Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes) Lightly-raced colt missed his intended prep for this classic when the rains hit York overnight. That said, he is not expected to be inconvenienced by a soft surface and has enjoyed a perfect lead up to his big challenge. Hopes are high for a big run. FREEPORT (Bath 4.00 p.m.) Gelding has enjoyed a break since a sluggish effort – albeit not beaten far in the end – at Pontefract in July. A return to his best would m

Cap O'Rushes 3:50 Doncaster - Cap O'Rushes 20/1 (PP) The rain that is coming tonight will be a god send for Cap O'Rushes in fact i think the more it rains the better. I think he could be the forgotten horse here but you cannot discount him. The extra distance will not be an issue. Beaten a head by Excess Knowledge in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes despite taking keen hold early on. On that form alone it should put him in the mix. 3:30 Chester - Mick's Your Man 14/1 e/w 5:50 Lingfield - Commandingprescence 10/1 8:30 Kempton - Ocean legend 8/1 5:20 Lingfield - Intibaah 7/2 Am waiting to see what the going is for Doncaster tomorrow before i look at anything else Stall's Analysis 2:05 Doncaster (6 qualifying races) 3. Picks Pinta  40% (2) 6. The Grey Gatsby 40% (2) 5. Outstrip 20% (1) 7. Cable Bay 20% (1) on 6 races qualified, but i had noticed a trend in this but it doesn't matter now. Stall 3 showed an slight advantage in all races around w

Red - Winner, Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Bath   2:15 Sefaat   2:50 Kittens   3:25 Charlotte's Day 4:00 North Pole   4:35 Chesterfield   5:05 Reqaaba 5:40 Miliika   Chester 1:50 Telegraph   2:20 Spin Artist   2:55 Cameron Highland 3:30 Mick's Yer Man   4:10 Mahican   4:45 Da'quonde 5:15 White Month Doncaster 2:05 The Grey Gatsby 2:40 Definightly 3:15 Gregorian   3:50 Libertarian   4:25 Guising   5:00 Extra Noble 6:05 Ascription Kempton   5:30 Oh So Sassy 6:00 Exclusive Waters 6:30 Secret Success   7:00 Substantivo 7:30 Morally Bankrupt   8:00 Balder Succes   8:30 Ocean Legend   9:00 Steely Lingfield   2:00 First Secretary   2:30 Ana Shababiya   3:05 Alnawiyah   3:40 Stars Ab

Ambiance coming 4th to No Nay Never 1:40 Doncaster - Ambiance 5/1 e/w (nap) Am advising e/w as this is a hot little race, but i do think he can win this. He has put up some good solid performances including a 4th behind No Nay Never. Fitted with a visor last time and he certainly light him up, maybe a bit more than they would of hoped. The visor remains on today, and hopefully he has learnt  from that. Just looking at his 3rd on good-soft behind Brown Sugar should put him up there again. And with Thunder Strike an unknown on this going, and he being the preference to Fast, out of the Hannon pair. He could take this. Excel's Beauty would need to step up on her last couple of runs, although she has done ok on softer ground. But Ambiance connections think a lot of him. 3:05 Sandown - Breden 11/2 e/w William Buick likes this horse, and cannot explain why he didn't go well last time over C&D. But today he should appreciate a little cut int he ground and hopefully bou

Red - Winner , Blue - Placed , Green - Non Runner Bangor   1:55 Pampanito 2:20 Another Hero 2:50 Suburban Bay 3:25 Edmaaj   4:00 Full Of Joy   4:35 Pete 5:10 Lost Legend 5:40 Himrayn   Doncaster 1:40 Ambiance 2:10 Pether's Moon   2:40 Biographer 3:15 Ihtimal 3:50 Barley Mow 4:25 Dubawi Sound   5:00 Soryah   Sandown 2:00 Desert Ace   2:30 Venezia 3:05 Breden 3:40 Mandy's Boy   4:15 Topamichi 4:50 Anya 5:20 First Post Wolverhampton 5:30 Lucky Black Star   6:00 Cross My Heart   6:30 Hattie Jacques 7:00 Limegrove   7:30 Toast Of New York 8:00 Stomachion   8:30 Ioannou 9:00 Nelina  

12th September by The Novice Tipster » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:47 pm Richard Hannon "Suite kick-starts our day in the nursery. She was doing all her best work at the finish when a close sixth at Goodwood last time, and the extra distance will help. The winner from Goodwood has since won again, while the fourth also subsequently gave the form a boost, so our filly would have an each-way chance in what looks a typical tough heat. "We run Maureen and Zurigha in the G3 Sceptre Stakes. Maureen was only beaten three lengths by Elusive Kate in the G1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville last time, and dropping back to seven furlongs for the first time since she won the Fred Darling at Newbury in April won't be a problem as she has a good finishing kick. Zurigha found the ground too fast at Royal Ascot, but, like Maureen, she has a touch of class, having finished an excellent fourth in the French 1000 Guineas, so we have two strong chances here. "As ever, we are mob-h

Thunderball winning at Doncaster on Soft going 3:25 Epsom - McDelta 16/1 - £110 4:25 Doncaster - Thunderball 8/1- £15 5:00 Doncaster - Proud Chieftain 14/1 9:00 Wolves - St Ignatius 8/1 (nap) - £15 £40 stake - £140 returns = £100 profit Stall Analysis 2:20 Epsom (only 5 races matched criteria) 3. Star Code 50% - 3 wins 4. Classic Mission - 20% 1 win 5. Roring Samson 20 % 1 win 1. China In My Hand 0% 2. Pool House 0% looking at similar races hardly any winners have come from stall 1 and 2 3:25 Epsom (16 races matched) 1. McDelta 38% (6 wins) 8. Aint Got A Scooby 25% (4) 6. Nightster 13% (2) Worst Stalls 4, Hipster 0% 5. Astrosapphire 0% I think there are enough races to go on here, and there looks to be a slight advantage to stall 1. 4:25 Doncaster (4 races) 21.If So 50% (2) 6. Pearl Ice 25% (1) 15. Enderby Spirit 25% (1) really not enough stats to go on here. although the fact that there is so many runner and in 50% of the races run a wi

Red - Winner, Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Chepstow 1:55 Sound Of Summer   2:30 Candy Kitten   3:00 Black Vale 3:35 Lambert Pen   4:10 Ding Ding 4:45 Game All   5:20 Olney Lass   5:50 Simple Joys   Doncaster 1:40 Gown   2:10 Winning Express 2:40 Khalice 3:15 Seal Of Approval 3:50 Alpine Retreat   4:25 Thunderball 5:00 Proud Chieftan Epsom 2:20 Star Code 2:50 Erroneous 3:25 McDelta 4:00 Hilali 4:35 Pilates   5:10 Mukhabarat   Wolverhampton   5:30 Handsome Stranger   6:00 Art Wave 6:30 Star Pearl 7:00 Classified Weapon   7:30 Big Storm Coming   8:00 Methaaly   8:30 Megaleka 9:00 St Ignatius  

Tearsofthesun 2:30 Doncaster - Expert 5/2 2:50 Carlisle - Plunder 9/1 3:00 Doncaster - Justineo 3/1-  £40 3:35 Doncaster - Callmeakhab 6/1 4:00 Carlisle - Tears Of The Sun 6/5 (nb) 4:45 Doncaster - Regal Dan 7/1 - £13.75 5:05 Carlisle - Hot Rod Mamma 7/1- £13.75 5:45 Kempton - Gabrials Gift 6/4 - £25 6:45 Kempton Whippy Cream 5/4 (nap) 8:15 Kempton - Victorian Number 8/1 - £15 Some here are stall analysis which i will put below £100 stakes - £107.50 = £7.50 profit Stall Analyst 2:30 Doncaster  3, Scruffy Tramp 67% 2. Expert 33% Although the stats show stall 3 as the best. on other stats it points more to stall 2 as being the better stall. As Expert was my original pick i am happy to go with that. 3:00 Doncaster 6. Justineo 100% Happy coincident this, as i read early that William Buick thinks this horse is his best chance of a winner today, and he thinks he has some very solid rides today. 4:00 Carlisle 2. Updated 33% 6. Zumurudah 17% 8. Lady

Red - Winner , Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Carlisle 2:20 Henke   2:50 Plunder 3:25 Artful Prince 5/2 4:00 Tears of The Sun 4:35 Charlotte's Day   5:05 Hot Rod Mamma 7/1 5:35 Cheers Buddy   6:05 Lion Beacon   Doncaster 2:00 Jazz 2:30 Expert   3:00 Justineo 4/1 3:35 Callmeakhab   4:10 Ocean War   4:45 Regal Dan 5:15 Royal Bajan   Kempton 5:45 Gabrial's Gift 6/4 6:15 Acquaint 8/1 6:45 Whippy Cream 7:15 Lisa's Legacy 7/2 7:45 Safety Check   8:15 Victorian Number 8/1 8:45 Quintet   9:15 Bussa Uttoxeter 2:10 Swift Escape   2:40 Belle De Fontenay   3/1 3:15 Trop Fort   3:50 Di Kaprio   4:25 Minella For Steak   4:55 Callhimwhatyouwant 5:25 Argaum  

Humidor 3:30 Redcar - Captain Scooby 10/1 e/w - £17.50 3:40 Worcester - One Term 13/8 - £26.25 4:10 Worcester - Comehomequietly 33/1 e/w 4:50 Leicester - Humidor 2/1 (nap) 5:00 Redcar - Beat The Shower 12/1 e/w - £20 5:40 Beverley - Avon Breeze 4/1 7:10 Beverley - Violent Velocity 7/1 e/w - £13.75 £70 stakes - £77.50 = £7.50 profit Stall Analysis 4:50 Leicetser  5. Humidor 100% This horse was marked up on my shortlist before i did the stall analysis. So this is a very happy coincidence. In fact all trends up until 7 runners have had very good results in these conditions with the outside stall. 5:40 Beverley 1. Avon Breeze 100%  I had this race between Bondi Beach Boy and Avon Breeze. Beverley looks to favour the lower stall numbers, so you have to consider Singuer, Mister Mannannan and Bondi Beach Boy, but under these conditions all the wins have come from stall 1 to date so Avon Breeze looks to have the advantage. 7:10 Beverley -  5. Violent Velocity

Red - Winner , Blue - Placed, Green - Non Runner Beverley 4:35 George The First   5:05 My History 8/13 5:40 Avon Breeze 6:10 Lunar Deity   6:40 Ocean Storm   7:10 Violent Velocity Leicester 2:20 Raise Your Gaze   2:50 Talented Kid 3:20 Der Blaue Reiter   3:50 Nautilus 6/5 4:20 Dorset Cream   4:50 Humidor   5:20 Rosselli Redcar   2:00 Classy Lassy   2:30 Strictly Glitz   3:00 Scoreline 3:30 Captain Scooby 4:00 The Osteopath 4:30 Yarn   5:00 Beat The Shower 5:30 Beckermet Worcester 2:10 Chestnut Ben   2:40 Sea Cadet 3:10 Valleyofmilan 3:40 OneTerm 4:10 Comehomequietly 4:40 No Loose Change 5:10 Anger Manaement

Saskia's Dream Stalls Analysis on 2:30 Brighton 3. Saskia's Dream 7/4 - 50% 2. Take the lead 10/1 - 25% 4. Chevise 11/2 - 25% Enough stats on this analysis to conclude that there is an advantage to stall 3, both stats either side also perform OK, but stall 3 looks to hold the key here. for races up to about 8 runners, stall 3 performs much better than the others. Stall Analysis 3:00 Brighton 1. Sellingallthetime 40% 9. Sullivan Street 40% 4. Juan Alonso 20% Being a Maiden it's nice to see if there is that little something that can give a horse an edge in a race. I find some Maidens very hard to predict because you just do not know what an unraced horse is capable of. This stall analysis has come up with 3 selections all have had some experience, and that is what i look for mostly. Juan Alonso is favourite at the moment, although i know Our Channel is heavily tipped, but as he doesn't feature here. Sullivan Street e/w or Juan Alonso for t