Friday, 4 April 2014

Grand National Trends







What makes a Grand National Winner? For me the horse has to jump well, have the stamina and above all i do like a horse to have had experience of the fences.
So i went through the runners up to number 46. And i marked out several pointers.
·         Horses who have won over 3 miles (11 out of the last 11 have all won over 3 miles before the National)
·         Horses who have won over hurdles this season (5 of the last 6 winners, all had a pipe opener over hurdles)
·         Stamina, i want see who has proven stamina, so looked at horses who have completed 3m 6f+
·         Also course experience is interesting, especially with that very long run in. So i have looked to see if a horse has won a race at Aintree, either hurdles or the Mildmay course or even over the National Fences.
·         For me experience over these fences is only positive, as the can be very daunting.
·         Because the fences are so big, you need a horse who jumps well, saying that Aurora’s Encore’s record was Fallen 5 times 1 UR, and 1 REF. But on the whole horses who jump go well.

For me these are a good combination and here is the list of the horses who did well in order of how well they did

Shakalakboomboom
Across The Bay
Saint Are
Triolo D’Alene
Wayward Prince
Teaforthree
Tidal Bay
Balthazar King
Prince De Beauchene
Monbeg Dude
Burton Point
Chance Du Roy
The Package
One In A Milan
Swing Bill
Soll
Night In Milan
Mr Moonshine

However Age seems quite important and horses age 7-8 and 12+ have a very bad record in the race, so that leaves us with
1st Shakalakboomboom 33/1
2nd Across The Bay 40/1
3rd Wayward Prince 50/1
3rd Teaforthree 8/1
Balthazar King
Prince De Beauchene
Monbeg Dude
Burton Point
Chance Du Roy
The Package
One In A Milan
Mr Moonshine

The winner you have to assume is from this list, although i have highlighted the main scorers. The top 4 horses look very nice indeed. However it’s still a long list and i have split the list in 2. The first list is horses who have had experience over the fences and the 2nd is the horses who are racing in the National for the first time as 15 of the last 20 winners have won on their very first time. I am posting them in order.
Experience over fences
Were They Came
First Time over fences
Shakalakaboomboom
7th Topham & 9th GN
Wayward Prince
Across The Bay
8th Bechers & 14th GN
Prince De Beauchene
Teaforthree
3rd GN
Monbeg Dude
Balthazar King
15th GN
Burton Port
Chance Du Roy
1st Bechers, 2nd Topham and Fell Grand Sefton
One In A Milan
The Package
UR GN
Night In Milan
Mr Moonshine
3rd Bechers & PU GN


So if you would want to Shortlist the horses even further the Shakalakaboomboom and Wayward Prince could be the 2 to focus on. However for me i am sticking to my list after the ages had been sorted and my final list will be

1st Shakalakboomboom 33/1
2nd Across The Bay 40/1
3rd Wayward Prince 50/1
3rd Teaforthree 8/1

Aintree Day 3 - 5/4/14







My Bets for Day 3

1:30 Volnay De Thaix 8/1 & Monkey Kingdom 14/1
2:05 Hinterland  3/1 & Simply Ned 14/1
2:50 At Fishers Cross 13/8
3:25 Unioniste 7/1 & Saint Are 8/1
4:15 Teaforthree 10/1, plus trend horses
5:10 Nesterenko 9/1 & Court Minstrel 16/1
5:45 Battle Born 10/1